Cincinnati is over, Coco Gauff has the trophy, and the battle for the WTA World No. 1 ranking has suddenly become one of the biggest stories heading into the US Open.
Aryna Sabalenka remains on top, but Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Gauff can all finish New York as World No. 1.
The extraordinary part is Rybakina.
The Kazakh retired injured against Iga Swiatek in the Cincinnati quarterfinals and has already withdrawn from the US Open mixed doubles alongside Taylor Fritz. It is still unclear whether she will be able to compete in singles.
Yet Rybakina could theoretically become World No. 1 without playing a single US Open match.
US Open 2026 World No. 1 Scenarios
| Finish | Sabalenka | Rybakina | Pegula | Gauff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DNP | 6,575 | 7,901 | 6,485 | 6,464 |
| R1 | 6,585 | 7,911 | 6,495 | 6,474 |
| R2 | 6,645 | 7,971 | 6,555 | 6,534 |
| R3 | 6,705 | 8,031 | 6,615 | 6,594 |
| R4 | 6,815 | 8,141 | 6,725 | 6,706 |
| QF | 7,005 | 8,331 | 6,915 | 6,896 |
| SF | 7,355 | 8,681 | 7,265 | 7,244 |
| Final | 7,875 | 9,201 | 7,785 | 7,764 |
| Winner | 8,575 | 9,901 | 8,485 | 8,464 |
Rybakina Holds the Strongest Hand
The table makes the extraordinary situation immediately clear.
If Rybakina does not play the US Open, she remains on 7,901 projected points. That total would still be higher than Sabalenka’s 7,875 if the current No. 1 reaches the final but loses, Pegula’s 7,785 as runner-up and Gauff’s 7,764.
In other words, if Rybakina withdraws from singles and none of Sabalenka, Pegula or Gauff wins the title, the Kazakh can still emerge from New York as World No. 1.
If she does compete, the equation becomes even stronger. A run to the US Open final guarantees Rybakina the No. 1 ranking, taking her to 9,201 points regardless of what happens elsewhere.
Sabalenka, Pegula and Gauff Must Win
For the other three, there is no halfway solution.
Sabalenka must win the US Open to retain a chance of finishing No. 1, which would take her to 8,575 points. Pegula would reach 8,485 by winning the title, while Cincinnati champion Gauff would reach 8,464.
Even those championship totals would not be enough if Rybakina reaches the semifinals: she would already stand at 8,681.
That makes Rybakina’s fitness one of the defining questions before the tournament begins.
Cincinnati ended painfully when she was forced to retire against Swiatek. The mixed doubles is already gone. Whether the singles follows remains unknown.
Sabalenka still owns the No. 1 ranking today.
But after Cincinnati, Rybakina may hold the most valuable cards heading into New York.