Cincinnati is over, Coco Gauff has the trophy, and the battle for the WTA World No. 1 ranking has now reached its decisive stage at the US Open.
Aryna Sabalenka remains No. 1 for the moment, but Elena Rybakina is only one victory away from replacing her.
The equation could hardly be simpler.
If Rybakina beats Qinwen Zheng in today’s US Open quarterfinal, she becomes the new World No. 1 regardless of anything that happens in the remaining matches.
That is quite a transformation from the uncertainty surrounding her after Cincinnati, where Rybakina retired against Iga Swiatek and subsequently withdrew from the US Open mixed doubles.
She did make the singles draw.
She has now won four matches.
And instead of wondering whether she would even be able to compete in New York, Rybakina arrives at the quarterfinals with the No. 1 ranking entirely in her own hands.
If Zheng stops her, however, the race opens up again.
US Open 2026 World No. 1 Scenarios
| Finish | Sabalenka | Rybakina | Pegula | Gauff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DNP | 6,575 | 7,901 | 6,485 | 6,464 |
| R1 | 6,585 | 7,911 | 6,495 | 6,474 |
| R2 | 6,645 | 7,971 | 6,555 | 6,534 |
| R3 | 6,705 | 8,031 | 6,615 | 6,594 |
| R4 | 6,815 | 8,141 | 6,725 | 6,706 |
| QF | 7,005 | 8,331 | 6,915 | 6,896 |
| SF | 7,355 | 8,681 | 7,265 | 7,244 |
| Final | 7,875 | 9,201 | 7,785 | 7,764 |
| Winner | 8,575 | 9,901 | 8,485 | 8,464 |
Rybakina Holds the Strongest Hand
The table now makes the situation much simpler.
Rybakina has already reached the US Open quarterfinals, and with it comes a direct route to the No. 1 ranking.
If she beats Qinwen Zheng, she moves to 8,681 projected points and becomes the new World No. 1 immediately, regardless of what happens in the remaining matches.
That would put her beyond the maximum totals available to Sabalenka, Pegula and Gauff.
If Rybakina loses to Zheng, however, she remains on 8,331 projected points and the door reopens.
At that point, Sabalenka, Pegula or Gauff can still finish the US Open as World No. 1 by winning the title.
So the equation has changed completely from before the tournament.
Rybakina no longer needs to watch what everybody else does.
Beat Zheng, and No. 1 is hers.
Lose, and the race suddenly belongs to the rest of the draw again.
For Sabalenka, Pegula and Gauff, Only the Title Will Do
For the other contenders, there is no halfway solution.
If Rybakina loses to Qinwen Zheng, she remains on 8,331 projected points. At that point, the door reopens for Aryna Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff — but only if one of them wins the US Open.
Sabalenka would finish on 8,575 points with the title. Pegula would reach 8,485, while Gauff could climb to 8,464.
The draw has already simplified one part of the equation.
Sabalenka and Pegula are through to the semifinals and will face each other, meaning one of them is guaranteed a place in the US Open final.
That also guarantees that, if Rybakina loses to Zheng, either Sabalenka or Pegula will arrive in the final with the World No. 1 ranking still within reach.
The other half depends on Coco Gauff vs. Mirra Andreeva.
If Andreeva wins, then she and Zheng remain the only players outside the original leading group who can take the title and prevent Sabalenka, Pegula or Gauff from finishing New York at No. 1.
If Gauff beats Andreeva, the equation tightens even further.
Then Qinwen Zheng becomes the only remaining player capable of stopping Sabalenka, Pegula or Gauff from taking the top ranking through a US Open title.
But all of those scenarios disappear if Rybakina wins today.
Beat Zheng, and Elena Rybakina is World No. 1.
Everything else becomes irrelevant.