Aryna Sabalenka has avoided the minefield sitting around Elena Rybakina at the top of the China Open draw.
That does not make her route easy.
The No. 2 seed begins with a first-round bye and has a comparatively gentle opening on paper, but the names become much more serious once the bracket tightens. Anastasia Potapova, Maja Chwalinska, Karolina Muchova, Naomi Osaka, Mirra Andreeva and Linda Noskova all sit somewhere in her half.
So while Rybakina has danger almost immediately, Sabalenka’s draw is more back-loaded.
The reward for surviving it could still be a final against the world No. 1.
Sabalenka’s China Open Draw Section
Sabalenka anchors the bottom section:
Anastasia Potapova (Aut) (16) bye
Maya Joint (Aus) vs. Sinja Kraus (Aut)
Caty McNally (Usa) vs. Dayana Yastremska (Ukr)
Maja Chwalinska (Pol) (17) bye
Nikola Bartunkova (Cze) (26) bye
Elsa Jacquemot (Fra) (Q) vs. Magdalena Frech (Pol)
Anna Bondar (Hun) vs. Renata Zarazua (Mex)
Aryna Sabalenka (Wrl) (2) bye
Sabalenka’s first match will come against the winner of Anna Bondar and Renata Zarazua.
That is a much friendlier opening than some of the paths elsewhere in the draw.
The projected third-round opponent is No. 26 seed Nikola Bartunkova, although Magdalena Frech sits nearby and could easily disturb that line.
| Week of | Tournament | Surface | Round | Opponent | Opponent Rank | Sabalenka Rank | Score | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug | US Open | Hard | F | Elena Rybakina | 35 | 1 | 6-4, 5-7, 6-2 | 1h55m |
| 13 Aug | Cincinnati | Hard | R16 | Sara Bejlek | 35 | 1 | 7-6(7) 6-4 | 1h55m |
| 02 Aug | Toronto | Hard | R16 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 19 | 1 | 7-6(3) 4-6 6-4 | 2h29m |
| 29 Jun | Wimbledon | Grass | R16 | Naomi Osaka | 14 | 1 | 6-2 7-6(2) | 1h28m |
| 15 Jun | Berlin | Grass | SF | Jessica Pegula | 4 | 1 | 6-4 6-7(4) 6-0 | 2h13m |
| 25 May | Roland Garros | Clay | QF | Diana Shnaider | 23 | 1 | 3-6 7-5 6-0 | 2h12m |
| 05 May | Rome | Clay | R32 | Sorana Cirstea | 27 | 1 | 2-6 6-3 7-5 | 2h13m |
| 21 Apr | Madrid | Clay | QF | Hailey Baptiste | 32 | 1 | 2-6 6-2 7-6(6) | 2h30m |
| 19 Jan | Australian Open | Hard | F | Elena Rybakina | 5 | 1 | 6-4 4-6 6-4 | 2h18m |
Potapova or Chwalinska Could Be Waiting in the Round of 16
The upper half of Sabalenka’s immediate section contains two seeded players who could both make the Round of 16 awkward.
No. 16 seed Anastasia Potapova sits at the top.
No. 17 seed Maja Chwalinska occupies the other side.
Chwalinska is particularly interesting after her recent Singapore run, while Potapova carries the higher seeding.
If the draw follows the numbers exactly, Sabalenka would meet Potapova in the Round of 16.
But this section is not rigid enough to assume that happens.
Maya Joint, Caty McNally and Dayana Yastremska all have the opportunity to disrupt the projected route before Sabalenka ever sees it.
Sabalenka’s Projected Path by Seeding
On paper, the No. 2 seed’s route looks like this:
- Round of 64: Anna Bondar / Renata Zarazua
- Round of 32: Nikola Bartunkova
- Round of 16: Anastasia Potapova
- Quarterfinal: Karolina Muchova
- Semifinal: Mirra Andreeva
- Final: Elena Rybakina
That is the clean projection.
The actual draw contains several players capable of making it messier.
The most obvious one is Naomi Osaka.
Muchova’s Quarter Comes With an Osaka Warning
No. 7 seed Karolina Muchova anchors the section directly above Sabalenka.
Her part of the bracket includes Liudmila Samsonova, Sara Bejlek and Naomi Osaka.
Osaka is seeded No. 12 and receives a first-round bye.
That makes the projected quarterfinal Sabalenka vs. Muchova, but Osaka gives the section a very different feel.
Muchova would have to survive her own part of the draw before a meeting with Sabalenka becomes possible, and Osaka is precisely the kind of player who can make a seeded projection irrelevant.
Samsonova adds another dangerous name.
For Sabalenka, the quarterfinal therefore looks much less predictable than the first few rounds.
Mirra Andreeva Is the Projected Semifinal Opponent
The next quarter is headed by Mirra Andreeva.
Her section contains Jasmine Paolini, Diane Parry, Clara Tauson and several unseeded players.
If the seedings hold, Andreeva would emerge from that section before meeting the winner of Linda Noskova’s quarter.
That would make Andreeva the projected semifinal opponent for Sabalenka.
But again, the draw is crowded enough to resist a clean script.
Paolini is seeded No. 14.
Tauson is No. 32.
And the adjacent Noskova section contains even more potential trouble.
Noskova’s Section May Be the Most Volatile in Sabalenka’s Half
No. 5 seed Linda Noskova heads a section featuring:
Peyton Stearns (28)
Ekaterina Alexandrova (19)
Diana Shnaider (11)
Talia Gibson
Janice Tjen
Anhelina Kalinina
Alina Korneeva
That is a considerable amount of depth.
The projected quarterfinal is Noskova against Andreeva, but Alexandrova and Shnaider are both capable of changing that route before it forms.
Gibson also arrives after reaching the Singapore final.
This is where Sabalenka’s half begins to look much stronger than the first two rounds initially suggest.
She may not be surrounded by danger immediately, but there is no shortage of it later.
The Contrast With Rybakina Is Striking
Rybakina’s section is front-loaded with traps.
Yuliia Starodubtseva could appear in her first match. Qinwen Zheng or Anna Kalinskaya may follow. Elina Svitolina sits in the projected quarterfinal, with Gauff or Swiatek beyond that.
Sabalenka’s path is shaped differently.
Bondar or Zarazua is a relatively comfortable place to start.
Bartunkova is the projected next seed.
Only after that do the heavier names begin appearing.
So the No. 2 seed has more breathing room early, but the quarterfinal and semifinal stages could become extremely difficult depending on who survives.
Sabalenka Has the Better Entrance but Not an Easy Exit
There is no obvious nightmare waiting for Sabalenka in Round 2.
That is the main difference between her draw and Rybakina’s.
But Beijing does not stay friendly for long.
Potapova or Chwalinska could appear in the Round of 16.
Muchova or Osaka could come next.
Andreeva is the projected semifinal opponent, with Noskova, Alexandrova or Shnaider all capable of arriving there instead.
The opening is kind.
The second week may not be.
And if the top two seeds negotiate everything in front of them, Beijing could still finish with the matchup the draw suggests from the very beginning:
Rybakina vs. Sabalenka for the title.
Our money is not on Sabalenka.
We never bet.