Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula — US Open 2026 Semifinal Match Report
For nearly an entire set, Jessica Pegula gave Aryna Sabalenka very little to work with.
Then Sabalenka stepped up the pressure.
The first break of the match arrived at the last possible moment, with Pegula serving at 5-6. Sabalenka took the set 7-5, and from there the semifinal moved increasingly in one direction.
She broke again for 3-1 in the second, never surrendered her own serve and closed out a 7-5, 6-2 victory to reach another US Open final.
The defending champion is now one win away from completing a remarkable three-title run in New York.
Pegula Keeps Sabalenka Locked in Until 5-5
For most of the opening set, there was almost nothing between them.
Sabalenka held.
Pegula answered.
The pattern continued through 1-1, 2-2, 3-3 and 4-4.
Even when the rallies became heavier, Pegula refused to give Sabalenka the sort of loose service game that could allow the match to open up.
At 5-4, Sabalenka had still not found a break.
Pegula held again for 5-5.
Sabalenka then moved through her own service game for 6-5, leaving Pegula serving to force a tiebreak.
That was where the match finally shifted.
Sabalenka created set point and took it.
7-5.
One break had separated them.
It would not stay that close for long.
Set 1 at a Glance
- Sabalenka hit 17 winners to Pegula’s 6, though also committed more unforced errors, 12 to 5.
- Pegula won 83% of her first-serve points (19 of 23), the strongest number on the page.
- Sabalenka narrowly edged the total points race, 35 to 33, despite Pegula winning the higher share of pressure points, 57% to 43%.
Full Set 1 Stats
| Sabalenka | Statistic | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Set 1 Duration: 0h43m | ||
| 0.98 | Dominance Ratio | 1.02 |
| 17 | Winners | 6 |
| 12 | Unforced Errors | 5 |
| 309 | Serve Rating | 280 |
| 4 | Aces | 2 |
| 2 | Double Faults | 0 |
| 70% (26/37) | 1st Serve % | 74% (23/31) |
| 73% (19/26) | 1st Serve Points Won | 83% (19/23) |
| 64% (7/11) | 2nd Serve Points Won | 38% (3/8) |
| 100% (1/1) | Break Points Saved | 67% (2/3) |
| 130 | Return Rating | 63 |
| 17% (4/23) | 1st Return Points Won | 27% (7/26) |
| 63% (5/8) | 2nd Return Points Won | 36% (4/11) |
| 1/3 | Break Points Won | 0/1 |
| 35 | Total Points Won | 33 |
Sabalenka Steps It Up and Pegula Cannot Follow
The second set began with another exchange of holds.
Sabalenka moved to 1-0.
Pegula answered for 1-1.
Sabalenka held again for 2-1.
Then came the acceleration.
Sabalenka attacked Pegula’s next service game, forced her way to break point and converted for 3-1.
This time there was no immediate response.
Sabalenka consolidated for 4-1 and was now striking with greater authority from the baseline, taking time away from Pegula and making the American defend increasingly difficult first balls.
Pegula stopped the run with a hold for 4-2.
Sabalenka responded with another strong service game for 5-2.
Then she broke once more.
6-2. Match.
From the moment she broke at the end of the first set, Sabalenka won eight of the final ten games.
Once she found another gear, Pegula never managed to drag her back down.
Set 2 at a Glance
- Sabalenka won 82% of her second-serve return points (9 of 11), well ahead of Pegula’s 30% (3 of 10) the other way.
- Sabalenka won her return games at 50% (2 of 4), while Pegula won none (0 of 4).
- Sabalenka closed the set decisively, 30 to 21 on total points, converting 2 of 5 break chances while Pegula had none.
Full Set 2 Stats
| Sabalenka | Statistic | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Set 2 Duration: 0h37m | ||
| 1.77 | Dominance Ratio | 0.56 |
| 12 | Winners | 6 |
| 10 | Unforced Errors | 9 |
| 302 | Serve Rating | 204 |
| 3 | Aces | 2 |
| 1 | Double Faults | 0 |
| 55% (12/22) | 1st Serve % | 62% (18/29) |
| 75% (9/12) | 1st Serve Points Won | 72% (13/18) |
| 70% (7/10) | 2nd Serve Points Won | 18% (2/11) |
| – (0/0) | Break Points Saved | 60% (3/5) |
| 200 | Return Rating | 55 |
| 28% (5/18) | 1st Return Points Won | 25% (3/12) |
| 82% (9/11) | 2nd Return Points Won | 30% (3/10) |
| 2/5 | Break Points Won | – (0/0) |
| 30 | Total Points Won | 21 |
Sabalenka Gives Pegula Almost Nothing on Return
The clearest difference came on serve.
Sabalenka did not lose a service game all night.
Pegula earned only one break point in the entire match.
Sabalenka saved it.
The No. 1 seed won 74 percent of her first-serve points and, even more impressively, 67 percent behind her second serve.
That second number was particularly damaging for Pegula.
The American won only 26 percent of her own second-serve points — five of 19.
Sabalenka won 14 of the 19 points played behind Pegula’s second serve.
That repeatedly allowed her to begin return points from an attacking position rather than merely putting the ball back into play.
Her average first serve came in at 109 mph (176 km/h), compared with Pegula’s 100 mph (161 km/h).
The second-serve averages were 93 mph (149 km/h) for Sabalenka and 85 mph (136 km/h) for Pegula.
Twenty-Nine Winners Tell the Other Half of the Story
Pegula actually kept her unforced-error count lower.
She committed 14, compared with Sabalenka’s 22.
But she could not generate nearly enough damage.
Sabalenka struck 29 winners.
Pegula managed 12.
That 17-winner gap explains why the match began to move away from Pegula once Sabalenka settled.
The American was keeping enough balls in court to remain competitive, but Sabalenka was increasingly the player deciding how points ended.
The dominance ratio reflected the same separation: 1.33 for Sabalenka, 0.75 for Pegula.
Even at net, the difference was sharp.
Sabalenka won six of nine points there.
Pegula won only one of five.
And across the match, Sabalenka finished with a 65-54 advantage in total points.
Pegula’s Second Serve Becomes the Target
Pegula had served well enough through much of the first set to keep Sabalenka waiting.
She landed 68 percent of first serves and won an excellent 78 percent of those points.
The problem arrived whenever she missed the first delivery.
Sabalenka immediately attacked.
Pegula made every second serve — there were no double faults — but simply putting it into the box was not enough.
She won only five second-serve points all match.
Sabalenka’s return position and willingness to step into the court steadily increased the pressure, particularly after the first-set breakthrough.
By the second set, Pegula was no longer merely trying to hold serve.
She was trying to prevent Sabalenka from taking control of the point almost immediately.
Too often, she could not.
Three US Open Titles in a Row Are Still Possible
The World No. 1 ranking is already gone to Elena Rybakina.
Sabalenka’s US Open is not.
For much of the first set, Pegula made this look like the sort of semifinal that could turn on one or two points.
In the end, it did.
The first came when Sabalenka broke at 6-5.
After that, the defending champion simply became the stronger player.
Her serve held firm, the return pressure increased, and her winner count kept climbing.
Pegula had stayed with her for almost an entire set.
Once Sabalenka stepped it up, there was no looking back.
One more victory would give Aryna Sabalenka a third consecutive US Open title.