Elena Rybakina vs. Katarzyna Kawa — Ningbo Open 2026 Quarterfinal Match Report
For one remarkable set, Katarzyna Kawa made the tennis world forget that she was ranked No. 128 and facing the world’s best player.
After being swept aside 6-1 in the opener, the Polish player produced arguably her finest set of the season against world No. 1 Elena Rybakina. And when she levelled the match, her delight was impossible to miss.
Unfortunately for Kawa, the celebrations were short-lived.
Rybakina recovered from the unexpected setback to win 6-1, 3-6, 6-1 in the quarterfinals of the 2026 Ningbo Open on Friday, October 23.
The Kazakh eventually found her dominant form again, although the contest proved considerably more complicated than the opening set had suggested.
Rybakina vs. Kawa — Ningbo 2026 QF Match Report
Rybakina Races Through the Opening Set
The first set looked like a mismatch.
Rybakina held her opening service game and immediately broke Kawa to establish a 2-0 lead.
A comfortable hold followed, stretching the advantage to 3-0.
Kawa finally got on the scoreboard in the fourth game, but the Pole was making little impression on Rybakina’s serve.
The world No. 1 held for 4-1 before securing another break to move ahead 5-1.
There was no hesitation when serving for the set.
Rybakina closed it out 6-1 with a telling dominance ratio of 4.76, having dropped just one game and never faced a break point.
At that stage, the outcome appeared inevitable.
Kawa had barely troubled the Kazakh. But the second set would tell a completely different story.
Set 1 at a Glance
- Rybakina gave up almost nothing on serve: she won 16 of 18 service points, hit four aces and never faced a break point while holding all four service games.
- Kawa’s second serve was exposed: she landed only 5 of 17 first serves (29%), so 12 points started on her second serve. Rybakina won 9 of those 12 and broke twice.
- One-sided in 23 minutes: Rybakina hit 11 winners to Kawa’s 3 and took 25 of the 35 points played.
Full Set 1 Stats
| Rybakina | Statistic | Kawa |
|---|---|---|
| Set 1 Duration: 0h23m | ||
| 4.76 | Dominance Ratio | 0.21 |
| 11 | Winners | 3 |
| 4 | Unforced Errors | 3 |
| 374 | Serve Rating | 187 |
| 4 | Aces | 1 |
| 0 | Double Faults | 1 |
| 83% (15/18) | 1st Serve % | 29% (5/17) |
| 87% (13/15) | 1st Serve Points Won | 100% (5/5) |
| 100% (3/3) | 2nd Serve Points Won | 25% (3/12) |
| – (0/0) | Break Points Saved | 60% (3/5) |
| 182 | Return Rating | 13 |
| 0% (0/5) | 1st Return Points Won | 13% (2/15) |
| 75% (9/12) | 2nd Return Points Won | 0% (0/3) |
| 2/5 | Break Points Won | 0/0 |
| 25 | Total Points Won | 10 |
Kawa Produces a Remarkable Second-Set Comeback
Rybakina actually started the second set with another break, moving ahead 1-0.
Then something changed.
Kawa broke straight back and survived a marathon service game to take a 2-1 lead.
The Pole was suddenly playing with far greater confidence. She broke Rybakina again for 3-1 and held another lengthy game to extend her advantage to 4-1.
Four consecutive games against the world No. 1. Quite a turnaround after that opening set.
Rybakina tried to stop the slide.
She survived a difficult service game to reduce the deficit to 2-4 and then broke Kawa to get back to 3-4.
For a moment, it seemed the Kazakh was about to restore normal service.
But Kawa had other ideas.
She broke Rybakina again to move ahead 5-3, leaving herself to serve for the set.
This time, the Pole held firm.
6-3.
The world No. 128 had taken a set from the world No. 1, and her reaction said everything.
Kawa was overjoyed. After being comprehensively outplayed in the opener, she had somehow forced a deciding set.
And she had done so by winning the kind of long, fiercely contested games that had initially seemed beyond her reach.
Set 2 at a Glance
- Rybakina’s serve fell apart: she landed only 39% of her first serves and hit five double faults. Kawa won 15 of 20 points on Rybakina’s second serve and broke her three times.
- Errors piled up for Rybakina: she made 20 unforced errors, against 11 from Kawa, and her 11 winners (one more than Kawa) didn’t make up for it.
- Kawa won the long battle: in a 58-minute set that hinged on 33 pressure points, Kawa won 19 of them and took 43 of the 79 points played.
Full Set 2 Stats
| Rybakina | Statistic | Kawa |
|---|---|---|
| Set 2 Duration: 0h58m | ||
| 0.83 | Dominance Ratio | 1.20 |
| 11 | Winners | 10 |
| 20 | Unforced Errors | 11 |
| 155 | Serve Rating | 217 |
| 2 | Aces | 0 |
| 5 | Double Faults | 0 |
| 39% (13/33) | 1st Serve % | 52% (24/46) |
| 69% (9/13) | 1st Serve Points Won | 50% (12/24) |
| 25% (5/20) | 2nd Serve Points Won | 55% (12/22) |
| 70% (7/10) | Break Points Saved | 78% (7/9) |
| 157 | Return Rating | 211 |
| 50% (12/24) | 1st Return Points Won | 31% (4/13) |
| 45% (10/22) | 2nd Return Points Won | 75% (15/20) |
| 2/9 | Break Points Won | 3/10 |
| 36 | Total Points Won | 43 |
Rybakina Puts an End to the Surprise
Kawa’s celebrations did not last long.
Rybakina began the deciding set with a comfortable hold and immediately put the Pole under pressure again.
She broke for 2-0 and consolidated for 3-0.
The pattern was beginning to look painfully familiar for Kawa.
The Polish player managed to hold for 3-1, but that would be her only game of the decider.
Rybakina moved ahead 4-1, broke again for 5-1 and served out the match without facing another break point.
6-1.
The same score as the opening set.
Whatever had gone wrong for the Kazakh in the middle of the match had been corrected rather emphatically.
Kawa had produced a tremendous response, but sustaining that level against Rybakina was another matter entirely.
Set 3 at a Glance
- Rybakina rediscovered her serve: she won 13 of 15 first-serve points (87%), held all four service games and never faced a break point.
- Rybakina was efficient on return: she converted 2 of her 3 break points and won 4 of the 5 points on Kawa’s second serve, so Kawa won only one game in the set.
- A quick finish: Rybakina hit 7 winners to Kawa’s 1 and took 25 of the 37 points in 25 minutes.
Full Set 3 Stats
| Rybakina | Statistic | Kawa |
|---|---|---|
| Set 3 Duration: 0h25m | ||
| 2.36 | Dominance Ratio | 0.42 |
| 7 | Winners | 1 |
| 3 | Unforced Errors | 5 |
| 309 | Serve Rating | 176 |
| 2 | Aces | 1 |
| 1 | Double Faults | 2 |
| 71% (15/21) | 1st Serve % | 69% (11/16) |
| 87% (13/15) | 1st Serve Points Won | 55% (6/11) |
| 50% (3/6) | 2nd Serve Points Won | 20% (1/5) |
| – (0/0) | Break Points Saved | 33% (1/3) |
| 259 | Return Rating | 63 |
| 45% (5/11) | 1st Return Points Won | 13% (2/15) |
| 80% (4/5) | 2nd Return Points Won | 50% (3/6) |
| 2/3 | Break Points Won | 0/0 |
| 25 | Total Points Won | 12 |
Rybakina’s First Serve Proves Too Strong
The overall statistics were firmly in Rybakina’s favour, despite Kawa’s impressive second-set performance.
The Kazakh finished with a dominance ratio of 1.40, almost twice Kawa’s 0.71.
She struck 29 winners against 27 unforced errors, while the Pole managed 14 winners and committed 19 errors.
Rybakina’s first serve was particularly effective.
She won an outstanding 81% of points behind her first delivery, compared with just 57% for Kawa.
The world No. 1 also struck eight aces against two for her opponent.
Elena Rybakina’s second serve, however, was far less reliable.
Rybakina won only 38% of those points. Kawa took full advantage, winning 62% of her second-serve return points.
That frailty helped explain how the Pole managed to turn the match around in the second set.
Break-point opportunities were plentiful.
Rybakina created 17 and converted six. Kawa earned 10 and converted three.
The Kazakh also saved seven of the 10 break points she faced, while Kawa saved an impressive 11 of 17.
Interestingly, Kawa won 56% of the pressure points, outperforming her illustrious opponent in that department.
But Rybakina dominated the overall exchanges. She won 86 of the 151 points played, accounting for 57% of the total.
The numbers underline both sides of the contest. Kawa was capable of troubling Rybakina when the rallies became competitive, particularly against the second serve.
But when the Kazakh found her first delivery and dictated the exchanges, the difference in quality was considerable.
Full Match Stats Rybakina vs Kawa
| Rybakina | Statistic | Kawa |
|---|---|---|
| Full Match Duration: 1h45m | ||
| 1.40 | Dominance Ratio | 0.71 |
| 29 | Winners | 14 |
| 27 | Unforced Errors | 19 |
| 256 | Serve Rating | 193 |
| 8 | Aces | 2 |
| 6 | Double Faults | 3 |
| 60% (43/72) | 1st Serve % | 51% (40/79) |
| 81% (35/43) | 1st Serve Points Won | 57% (23/40) |
| 38% (11/29) | 2nd Serve Points Won | 41% (16/39) |
| 70% (7/10) | Break Points Saved | 65% (11/17) |
| 192 | Return Rating | 136 |
| 43% (17/40) | 1st Return Points Won | 19% (8/43) |
| 59% (23/39) | 2nd Return Points Won | 62% (18/29) |
| 6/17 | Break Points Won | 3/10 |
| 86 | Total Points Won | 65 |
Shnaider Awaits in the Semifinals
Rybakina’s reward is a semifinal against Diana Shnaider, who defeated American teenager Iva Jovic in three sets earlier on Friday.
The Russian, ranked No. 13, has enjoyed an increasingly productive Asian swing and arrives in Ningbo with plenty of matches behind her.
She will need that confidence against Rybakina.
Their previous two meetings both ended in straight-set victories for the Kazakh.
However, Kawa has just demonstrated that the world No. 1 is not completely untouchable.
Shnaider has been building momentum, while Rybakina has had less Asian match practice. That could make their third encounter more interesting than the previous two.
There is just one small problem.
Kawa found a way past Rybakina for one remarkable set.
Will Diana Shnaider be able to find it twice?