Amanda Anisimova vs. Jessica Pegula — Cincinnati 2026 QF Match Report
Jessica Pegula won 96 points. Amanda Anisimova won 95.
The numbers showed how little separated them over two hours and nine minutes. What mattered was where those points fell: Pegula took the deciding tiebreak to seal a 6-4, 2-6, 7-6(4) victory and a place in the Cincinnati Open semifinals.
It was a match that repeatedly changed direction. Pegula controlled the opening set, Anisimova swept through much of the second, and Pegula then watched a 3-0 lead disappear in the decider before recovering in the final tiebreak.
Anisimova arrived in the quarterfinals after producing arguably her sharpest performance of the tournament, overwhelming Linda Noskova 6-1, 6-4. Pegula had required considerably more work, surviving Sorana Cirstea 6-2, 4-6, 7-5 after earlier straight-set wins over Simona Waltert and Emma Navarro.
This time there was almost nothing between them.
Pegula Finds the Only Break She Needs
The opening games offered little indication that either player would separate herself quickly.
Anisimova held for 1-0 and Pegula answered before the first significant opening arrived in the third game.
Pegula attacked the Anisimova serve, worked through a lengthy deuce game and converted the break for 2-1.
It proved to be enough.
Anisimova stayed close, holding for 2-3 and 3-4, but Pegula continued to protect her serve. At 5-3, Anisimova held once more to force the third seed to finish the job herself.
Pegula did exactly that, closing the opening set 6-4 after 39 minutes.
There had been only one break of serve, but it had come early enough to leave Anisimova chasing the set almost throughout.
Set 1 at a Glance
- Pegula secured the only break of the set for 2-1.
- Anisimova stayed within touching distance but could not create the break needed to recover.
- Pegula won 56% of total points (30/54), despite Anisimova hitting more winners, 10 to 4.
Full Set 1 Stats
| Anisimova | Statistic | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Set 1 Duration: 0h34m | ||
| 0.60 | Dominance Ratio | 1.67 |
| 10 | Winners | 4 |
| 14 | Unforced Errors | 6 |
| 265 | Serve Rating | 326 |
| 0 | Aces | 1 |
| 1 | Double Faults | 0 |
| 50% (14/28) | 1st Serve % | 65% (17/26) |
| 86% (12/14) | 1st Serve Points Won | 82% (14/17) |
| 50% (7/14) | 2nd Serve Points Won | 78% (7/9) |
| 67% (2/3) | Break Points Saved | – (0/0) |
| 40 | Return Rating | 117 |
| 18% (3/17) | 1st Return Points Won | 14% (2/14) |
| 22% (2/9) | 2nd Return Points Won | 50% (7/14) |
| – (0/0) | Break Points Won | 1/3 |
| 24 | Total Points Won | 30 |
Anisimova Turns the Match Around
Whatever frustration Anisimova carried from the opening set disappeared almost immediately in the second.
She held for 1-0 and then broke Pegula for 2-0.
Another hold made it 3-0 before Anisimova struck again, breaking for 4-0 and suddenly placing Pegula under the same sort of sustained pressure that Noskova had faced in the previous round.
Pegula did manage to interrupt the surge.
She broke back for 4-1 and held for 4-2, briefly raising the possibility of a deeper recovery.
Anisimova shut it down.
She held for 5-2 and then broke Pegula again to take the set 6-2 after only 34 minutes.
One set all, and the momentum had changed completely.
Set 2 at a Glance
- Anisimova raced to a 4-0 lead with two breaks of serve.
- Pegula recovered one break but could get no closer than 4-2.
- Anisimova won 61% of total points (31/51), hitting 14 winners to Pegula’s 1.
Full Set 2 Stats
| Anisimova | Statistic | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Set 2 Duration: 0h34m | ||
| 1.62 | Dominance Ratio | 0.62 |
| 14 | Winners | 1 |
| 12 | Unforced Errors | 10 |
| 255 | Serve Rating | 172 |
| 1 | Aces | 0 |
| 2 | Double Faults | 1 |
| 58% (15/26) | 1st Serve % | 64% (16/25) |
| 73% (11/15) | 1st Serve Points Won | 44% (7/16) |
| 50% (5/10) | 2nd Serve Points Won | 40% (4/10) |
| 50% (1/2) | Break Points Saved | 0% (0/3) |
| 291 | Return Rating | 152 |
| 56% (9/16) | 1st Return Points Won | 27% (4/15) |
| 60% (6/10) | 2nd Return Points Won | 50% (5/10) |
| 3/3 | Break Points Won | 1/2 |
| 31 | Total Points Won | 20 |
Pegula Nearly Lets the Decider Escape
The third set initially looked as though it might produce another decisive swing.
Pegula broke Anisimova in the opening game, held for 2-0 and then broke again for 3-0.
After the force of Anisimova’s second set, Pegula had suddenly re-established a commanding position.
Anisimova refused to let it become terminal.
She immediately recovered one of the breaks for 1-3 and began working her way back into the set. The next several games went with serve, leaving Pegula ahead 5-3 and two games from the semifinal.
Anisimova held for 4-5.
Then came the breakthrough she needed.
With Pegula serving for a 6-4 finish, Anisimova broke to level at 5-5, completing another substantial momentum shift. She followed it with a hold for 6-5, meaning Pegula had gone from controlling the decider to serving merely to stay in the match.
Pegula survived and forced the tiebreak.
There, the margins finally became as small as the match deserved.
Anisimova moved ahead 4-3 and had a chance to go 5-2 up during a long rally she appeared to control, but she would not win another point.
Pegula swept the final four points, moved through 5-4 to double match point at 6-4 and converted immediately to take the breaker 7-4.
After 191 points, the difference between them was one.
Set 3 at a Glance
- Anisimova committed 30 unforced errors compared with Pegula’s 13, more than double.
- Pegula won 60% of her service points (26/43) compared with Anisimova’s 53% (23/43).
- Pegula raced 3-0 ahead with two early breaks.
- Pegula won 53% of total points (46/86), despite Anisimova hitting more winners, 17 to 13.
Full Set 3 Stats
| Anisimova | Statistic | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Set 3 Duration: 1h01m | ||
| 0.85 | Dominance Ratio | 1.18 |
| 17 | Winners | 13 |
| 30 | Unforced Errors | 13 |
| 250 | Serve Rating | 255 |
| 3 | Aces | 3 |
| 0 | Double Faults | 1 |
| 74% (32/43) | 1st Serve % | 65% (28/43) |
| 56% (18/32) | 1st Serve Points Won | 68% (19/28) |
| 50% (7/14) | 2nd Serve Points Won | 53% (10/19) |
| 0% (0/2) | Break Points Saved | 0% (0/2) |
| 212 | Return Rating | 227 |
| 32% (9/28) | 1st Return Points Won | 44% (14/32) |
| 47% (9/19) | 2nd Return Points Won | 50% (7/14) |
| 2/2 | Break Points Won | 2/2 |
| 40 | Total Points Won | 46 |
Anisimova Attacks, Pegula Survives
The statistics explain why the match felt so finely balanced.
Anisimova struck 41 winners to Pegula’s 18, but the aggression came at a considerable cost: she also committed 56 unforced errors, compared with Pegula’s 29.
Their dominance ratios were almost identical, with Pegula at 1.02 and Anisimova at 0.98.
There was similarly little separation on serve. Pegula won 62 per cent of her service points and Anisimova 61 per cent, while both finished with an identical serve rating of 247.
Anisimova was perfect on her five break-point opportunities. Pegula converted four of seven, with the American pair combining for nine breaks across the three sets.
Anisimova also held the better pressure-point figure, winning eight of 12.
Pegula won 96 of 191 total points.
Pegula Rebuilds Her Hard-Court Summer at the Right Time
Pegula’s North American summer has changed complexion quickly. After a Canadian Open that offered little encouragement, she is now one victory from the Cincinnati final and has rediscovered momentum at precisely the right moment before the US Open.
Her semifinal opponent will be the winner of Iga Swiatek against Elena Rybakina, the remaining quarterfinal in this half of the draw.
Rybakina still has the opportunity to challenge for World No. 1 in Cincinnati. Pegula, however, has her own reason to watch closely. Beat either Rybakina or Swiatek and she reaches the final while pushing herself back into the wider No. 1 conversation heading to New York.
After surviving Anisimova by the narrowest possible margin, that possibility suddenly looks considerably less remote.