Iva Jovic vs. Jasmine Paolini — Ningbo Open 2026 Round-of-16 Match Report
How quickly things can change in tennis. Last season, Jasmine Paolini defeated Iva Jovic twice. This year, the American teenager has returned the favour on both occasions.
After beating the Italian at the Australian Open in January, Jovic added another 6-4, 6-3 victory in the second round of the Ningbo Open on Thursday, October 22.
The result sends the world No. 12 into the Ningbo quarterfinals and leaves Paolini searching for a way out of a difficult season.
The Italian was still ranked No. 7 during Indian Wells and Miami earlier this year. Seven months later, she finds herself at No. 35.
And Thursday’s match offered few signs of an imminent turnaround.
Paolini’s Early Advantage Disappears
The opening set initially went Paolini’s way. She held her first two service games and broke Jovic to take a 3-1 lead.
However, that advantage lasted barely a few minutes.
Jovic immediately broke back for 2-3 before holding serve to level the score at 3-3.
Both players then held to reach 4-4, but the teenager was beginning to look the more dangerous player.
Paolini found herself under pressure again in the ninth game. This time, she could not escape.
Jovic secured another break to move ahead 5-4 and served out the set without further complications.
From 1-3 down, the American had won five of the next six games.
Paolini had started well enough. The problem was that Jovic had finished considerably better.
Jovic Races Ahead Before Another Paolini Fightback
The second set began disastrously for the Italian.
Jovic broke immediately, held serve and broke again to establish a commanding 3-0 lead.
Paolini was in danger of being swept aside.
She broke back for 3-1, only to surrender her serve again in the following game.
The Italian responded with another break to make it 4-2 and finally held serve to reduce the deficit to 4-3.
It was becoming a rather untidy contest. Neither player seemed particularly comfortable protecting her serve.
But Jovic managed to steady herself at the right moment.
She held for 5-3, leaving Paolini serving to stay in the tournament.
The Italian could not hold on.
Jovic broke once more to complete the victory, having claimed four breaks of serve in the second set alone.
Paolini had twice threatened to make things interesting. On both occasions, Jovic had the better answer.
The Statistics Show Where Paolini Struggled
The biggest difference between the two players was their effectiveness against the first serve.
Jovic won an impressive 56% of points on Paolini’s first serve, compared with just 31% for the Italian on the American’s first delivery.
Paolini won only 15 of 34 first-serve points, a poor return of 44%. Her second serve offered little relief, producing a 46% success rate.
That left Jovic with plenty of opportunities to attack.
The teenager converted six of her 11 break points, while Paolini converted three of four.
Interestingly, the Italian was more efficient when those chances appeared. The problem was that she faced almost three times as many break points as she created.
Jovic also had the better numbers from the baseline.
She struck 21 winners against 22 unforced errors, while Paolini managed just 13 winners and committed 27 errors.
The American’s serving was not flawless. Her six double faults compared unfavourably with Paolini’s two, although she compensated with three aces.
The dominance ratio was particularly revealing: 1.41 for Jovic against 0.71 for Paolini.
Jovic finished with 64 of the 111 points played, winning 58% of the total. She also won seven of 11 points at the net, compared with six of 11 for Paolini.
The Italian actually claimed 11 of the 19 pressure points. However, those successes could not compensate for her difficulties holding serve.
Six lost service games across two sets proved far too costly.
Full Match Stats Jovic vs Paolini
| Jovic | Statistic | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Full Match Duration: 1h23m | ||
| 1.41 | Dominance Ratio | 0.71 |
| 21 | Winners | 13 |
| 22 | Unforced Errors | 27 |
| 242 | Serve Rating | 183 |
| 3 | Aces | 0 |
| 6 | Double Faults | 2 |
| 59% (29/49) | 1st Serve % | 55% (34/62) |
| 69% (20/29) | 1st Serve Points Won | 44% (15/34) |
| 50% (10/20) | 2nd Serve Points Won | 46% (13/28) |
| 25% (1/4) | Break Points Saved | 45% (5/11) |
| 225 | Return Rating | 189 |
| 56% (19/34) | 1st Return Points Won | 31% (9/29) |
| 54% (15/28) | 2nd Return Points Won | 50% (10/20) |
| 6/11 | Break Points Won | 3/4 |
| 64 | Total Points Won | 47 |
From No. 7 to No. 35: Where Does Paolini Go From Here?
Paolini’s decline in the rankings has been difficult to overlook.
She was still seventh in the world when the American hard-court swing reached Indian Wells and Miami earlier this year.
Now she is ranked No. 35, having slipped 28 places in just seven months.
It has not been a season without encouraging moments.
Her Wimbledon quarterfinal appearance was a welcome result, even if Marta Kostyuk eventually ended her campaign.
But the longer tournament runs have become increasingly rare.
Where Paolini once regularly challenged for semifinals and finals, she now struggles to string together enough victories to reach those stages.
And the contrast with Jovic is striking.
The American lost both encounters against Italy’s highest-ranked player in 2025. This year, she has won both, first in Melbourne and now in Ningbo.
Their positions in the rankings tell much the same story.
Jovic has climbed to No. 12.
The Italian will turn 31 in January, shortly before the Australian Open. There is certainly still time to improve her results and work her way back up the rankings.
But she needs more than the occasional good week.
For Jovic, meanwhile, it is another quarterfinal and another indication of how much has changed in twelve months.
Two defeats against Paolini in 2025. Two victories in 2026.
At this rate, the Italian may be hoping their next meeting takes a little longer to arrive.