Elena Rybakina’s name still carries a particular echo in Paris.
Before she became a Grand Slam champion, before she became world No. 2, before her game started to feel like one of the tour’s cleanest arguments for controlled violence, Roland Garros had already seen the first flash of her higher ceiling. It was here, against Serena Williams in 2021, that Rybakina produced one of those early “oh, this is real” performances: calm power, little visible panic, and the sense of a player discovering that her best tennis could live comfortably on the biggest stage.
That is the version everyone expects to walk out when Rybakina appears in Paris now.
Yuliia Starodubtseva had other plans.
The Ukrainian was not there to decorate the second round. She came with legs, nerve and the kind of baseline stubbornness that can make a bigger name feel trapped in a much smaller match. For one set, Rybakina looked ready to handle it. Then Starodubtseva turned the afternoon into something wild.
She battered through the second set, built a double-break lead in the third, watched Rybakina claw back toward the brink of escape, and then held herself together when the whole thing reached a super tie-break.
By the end, this was no longer a scare.
It was a thunderclap.
Starodubtseva beat the world No. 2 3-6, 6-1, 7-6, winning the deciding super tie-break and delivering the biggest upset of Roland Garros so far.
Rybakina Starts Like the Match Belongs to Her
The first set looked, at least for a while, like familiar Rybakina territory.
She broke early, moved out to 3-0, and made the match feel as if it might be decided by the usual weapons: the first strike, the heavy serve, the clean acceleration off both wings. Starodubtseva was being pushed backward in too many rallies, and Rybakina’s early lead gave the set a predictable shape.
At 5-1, it looked close to over.
But even in that first set, there was a warning tucked inside the scoreline. Starodubtseva did not disappear. She broke back, held, and dragged the set from 5-1 to 5-3. Rybakina eventually closed it 6-3, but not before the Ukrainian had made clear that this was not going to be a quiet walk behind the baseline.
The scoreboard said Rybakina was ahead.
The match was already whispering that there might be trouble.
Starodubtseva vs Rybakina – Set One Stats
| Statistic | Starodubtseva | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 0.79 | 1.27 |
| Winners | 1 | 8 |
| Unforced Errors | 13 | 21 |
| Serve Rating | 239 | 280 |
| Aces | 0 | 2 |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 |
| 1st Serve % | 92% (22/24) | 91% (30/33) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 50% (11/22) | 60% (18/30) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 50% (5/10) | 47% (7/15) |
| Break Points Saved | 0% (0/2) | 75% (3/4) |
| Service Games | 50% (2/4) | 80% (4/5) |
| Ace % | 0% | 6.1% |
| Double Fault % | 12.5% | 0% |
| Return Rating | 138 | 250 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 40% (12/30) | 50% (11/22) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 53% (8/15) | 50% (5/10) |
| Break Points Won | 25% (1/4) | 100% (2/2) |
| Return Games | 20% (1/5) | 50% (2/4) |
| Pressure Points | 11% (1/9) | 89% (8/9) |
| Service Points | 50% (12/24) | 61% (20/33) |
| Return Points | 39% (13/33) | 50% (12/24) |
| Total Points | 44% (25/57) | 56% (32/57) |
| Max Points In A Row | 4 | 6 |
| Total Games | 33% (3/9) | 67% (6/9) |
| Set 1 Duration | 0h37m | |
Starodubtseva Turns the Second Set Into a Warning Siren
The second set was not a wobble. It was a collapse in volume.
Starodubtseva broke immediately, held for 2-0, and suddenly the first-set pattern had been flipped. Rybakina was no longer the player stepping in first. She was the one being rushed, stretched and made to play from places she did not want to visit.
At 3-0, the trouble was obvious. At 4-0, it was no longer just trouble. It was a full reset of the match.
Starodubtseva’s second-set numbers tell the story. She won 80 percent of her first-serve points in that set, 12 of 15, and an even more striking 83 percent behind her second serve, five of six. Rybakina, by contrast, won only 57 percent of her first-serve points and just 33 percent behind her second serve.
That is a brutal reversal for a player whose whole game normally begins with scoreboard pressure from the serve.
The Ukrainian also won 54 percent of return points in the set and converted both of her break points. Rybakina managed only one winner in the entire second set and made 15 unforced errors. Starodubtseva hit nine winners and made eight errors. That is not an opponent hanging around. That is an opponent taking the match by the throat.
Rybakina did avoid the bagel, but only just. Starodubtseva took it 6-1, and by then she had won eight of the previous 10 games.
That was the real alarm bell.
Starodubtseva vs Rybakina – Set Two Stats
| Statistic | Starodubtseva | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 2.83 | 0.35 |
| Winners | 9 | 1 |
| Unforced Errors | 8 | 15 |
| Serve Rating | 352 | 200 |
| Aces | 1 | 0 |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 |
| 1st Serve % | 86% (18/21) | 88% (23/26) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 83% (15/18) | 48% (11/23) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 83% (5/6) | 33% (4/12) |
| Break Points Saved | 100% (2/2) | 33% (1/3) |
| Service Games | 100% (4/4) | 33% (1/3) |
| Ace % | 4.8% | 0% |
| Double Fault % | 4.8% | 7.7% |
| Return Rating | 253 | 34 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 52% (12/23) | 17% (3/18) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 67% (8/12) | 17% (1/6) |
| Break Points Won | 67% (2/3) | 0% (0/2) |
| Return Games | 67% (2/3) | 0% (0/4) |
| Pressure Points | 70% (7/10) | 30% (3/10) |
| Service Points | 81% (17/21) | 46% (12/26) |
| Return Points | 54% (14/26) | 19% (4/21) |
| Total Points | 66% (31/47) | 34% (16/47) |
| Set 2 Duration | 0h36m | |
The Third Set Begins With Rybakina Against the Wall
If Rybakina needed a calm start to the decider, she got the opposite.
Starodubtseva broke in the opening game of the third set, held for 2-0, then broke again for 3-0. The match had fully changed identity. Rybakina had gone from first-set control to double-break danger, and Starodubtseva was playing like someone who had stopped being impressed by the ranking across the net.
This was where the upset became really real.
At 3-0 in the third, Rybakina was not just under pressure. She was pinned. Starodubtseva had the legs, the momentum and the cleaner emotional temperature. Rybakina had the reputation, but reputations do not hold serve for you.
Then came the first sign of resistance.
Rybakina broke back for 3-1. It did not solve the problem, but it stopped the match from running away completely. Starodubtseva still led 4-2 after six games, and with the match still live, the tension was clear: could the Ukrainian keep her hand steady, or would Rybakina’s weight of experience finally start dragging her back?
Rybakina Starts Dragging the Match Back Toward Her
At 4-2, Starodubtseva still had the scoreboard. What she no longer had was the same clean air.
Rybakina held for 4-3, and suddenly the double-break lead had been cut to something far more fragile. The Ukrainian was still ahead, still close enough to see the finish line, but the match had stopped feeling like a rush toward the upset. It had become a test of whether she could carry the lead with Rybakina now breathing properly again.
Then came the break.
At 4-3, Starodubtseva served with the match beginning to tighten around her. Rybakina pushed the game to break point, took it, and levelled at 4-4. The escape route was no longer theoretical. The world No. 2 had found finally something. Would it be enough?
Rybakina held for 5-4, moving ahead in the deciding set for the first time after being 0-3 down. Starodubtseva had played too well to disappear, but she now had to serve to stay in the match rather than serve from in front.
That is the brutal little switch at this level. For more than an hour, Starodubtseva had Rybakina pinned. Then, almost game by game, the pressure changed hands.
At 4-5, with the upset suddenly wobbling rather than roaring, Starodubtseva stepped to the line needing one more answer.
She found it!
The Ukrainian held for 5-5, stopping Rybakina’s run just as the match seemed ready to tilt completely back toward the world No. 2. It was not just a scoreboard hold. It was a nerve hold, the kind that reminded everyone that this match had not yet become Rybakina’s escape story.
To Super Tie-Break or Not, Paris Waited on Starodubtseva’s Nerve
Rybakina then held for 6-5, which moved the pressure straight back across the net. Starodubtseva now had to serve to stay in the tournament. Hold, and the match would go to a 10-point deciding tie-break. Blink, and Rybakina’s escape would be complete before the breaker ever arrived.
Starodubtseva held.
Of course she did.
At 5-6, with the match dangling over the edge, she found the hold that pushed the whole thing into the place Roland Garros now sends its final-set chaos: 6-6, super tie-break.
The upset was no longer only alive.
It had reached the shootout.
Rybakina Dead or Alive In the Super Breaker?
The super tie-break began exactly as the match deserved: nervy, messy and split open immediately.
Starodubtseva struck first for 1-0. Rybakina answered straight back for 1-1. Two points in, two mini-breaks exchanged, and no one had been allowed even the illusion of control.
After everything that had already happened, of course it started like this.
Both held from there.
2-2 in the breaker, and still no daylight.
At the changeover, Starodubtseva led 4-2.
Then came 5-2. She was halfway there.
Rybakina needed at least one of her next two serves. The first went AWOL. The second landed, cutting the gap to 6-3.
But the Ukrainian was not having it. She served her way to 7-3, and at 8-3 she had Rybakina firmly on the ropes.
9-3. Starodubtseva had earned as many match points as a player could dream of.
She missed the first.
The second was hers.
Starodubtseva vs Rybakina – Set Three Stats
| Statistic | Starodubtseva | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.19 | 0.84 |
| Winners | 2 | 13 |
| Unforced Errors | 14 | 31 |
| Serve Rating | 269 | 255 |
| Aces | 0 | 2 |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 |
| 1st Serve % | 95% (40/42) | 91% (40/44) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 63% (25/40) | 57% (23/40) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 44% (7/16) | 39% (7/18) |
| Break Points Saved | 50% (2/4) | 50% (2/4) |
| Service Games | 67% (4/6) | 67% (4/6) |
| Ace % | 0% | 4.5% |
| Double Fault % | 0% | 4.5% |
| Return Rating | 187 | 177 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 43% (17/40) | 38% (15/40) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 61% (11/18) | 56% (9/16) |
| Break Points Won | 50% (2/4) | 50% (2/4) |
| Return Games | 33% (2/6) | 33% (2/6) |
| Pressure Points | 55% (6/11) | 45% (5/11) |
| Service Points | 62% (26/42) | 55% (24/44) |
| Return Points | 45% (20/44) | 38% (16/42) |
| Total Points | 53% (46/86) | 47% (40/86) |
| Max Points In A Row | 4 | 4 |
| Total Games | 50% (6/12) | 50% (6/12) |
| Set 3 Duration | 1h17m | |
And with it, Yuliia Starodubtseva did not just finish the match. She ripped the tournament open.
A few games earlier, Rybakina had looked as if she might drag the whole escape back toward herself. Instead, Starodubtseva held her nerve inside the super tie-break, stared down the world No. 2, and turned a 3-6, 6-1, 7-6 victory into the biggest upset of Roland Garros so far.
Rybakina was gone.
Starodubtseva was through.
And Paris had its first true thunderclap.