Elena Rybakina is heading back to the Australian Open final — but not without a scare.
The 2023 finalist overcame Jessica Pegula 6–3, 7–6(7) in a high-quality, tension-filled second semi-final on Rod Laver Arena, surviving a late wobble on serve and a defiant fightback from the American to set up a blockbuster rematch with world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka.
What began as a controlled, serve-dominated performance from the Kazakh turned into a nerve-shredding examination of composure. Rybakina passed it — just.
Rybakina’s Second Serve Sets the Tone
From the opening game, Rybakina imposed her authority. Her second serve landed with weight and precision, immediately restricting Pegula’s ability to step inside the baseline and dictate patterns.
A routine opening hold was followed by an early break, as Pegula struggled to absorb the depth and pace coming off Rybakina’s groundstrokes. Even when games were competitive, the American found herself playing from defensive positions, constantly reacting rather than constructing.
Pegula eventually got on the board, but the pattern did not change. Rybakina repeatedly backed up her breaks with commanding service games, barely allowing Pegula a look on return. At 5–3, she closed the set with a thunderous forehand, sealing the opener 6–3 and moving one set away from a second Australian Open final.
Pegula vs Rybakina – Set One Stats
| Statistic | Pegula | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 0.53 | 1.90 |
| Winners | 4 | 8 |
| Unforced Errors | 9 | 7 |
| Serve Rating | 264 | 304 |
| Aces | 1 | 0 |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 |
| 1st Serve % | 73% (19/26) | 48% (13/27) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 58% (11/19) | 77% (10/13) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 57% (4/7) | 79% (11/14) |
| Break Points Saved | 67% (2/3) | – (0/0) |
| Service Games Won | 75% (3/4) | 100% (5/5) |
| Ace % | 3.8% | 0% |
| Double Fault % | 0% | 0% |
| Return Rating | 44 | 143 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 23% (3/13) | 42% (8/19) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 21% (3/14) | 43% (3/7) |
| Break Points Won | – (0/0) | 33% (1/3) |
| Return Games Won | 0% (0/5) | 25% (1/4) |
| Pressure Points Won | 67% (2/3) | 33% (1/3) |
| Service Points Won | 58% (15/26) | 78% (21/27) |
| Return Points Won | 22% (6/27) | 42% (11/26) |
| Net Points Won | 100% (1/1) | 67% (2/3) |
| Total Points Won | 40% (21/53) | 60% (32/53) |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 5 | 6 |
| Service Games | 75% (3/4) | 100% (5/5) |
| Return Games | 0% (0/5) | 25% (1/4) |
| Total Games | 33% (3/9) | 67% (6/9) |
| Max Games In A Row | 1 | 3 |
| Set 1 Duration | 0h33m | |
Pegula Resists, Rybakina Wavers — Then Survives
The second set unfolded far differently.
Pegula emerged with renewed intent, holding to love early and beginning to extend rallies, probing Rybakina’s movement and patience. Yet every time the American threatened momentum, Rybakina responded with authority — breaking back, holding firm, and steadily building scoreboard pressure.
At 5–4, the Kazakh stood on the brink. Three match points came and went as Pegula produced her best tennis of the night, saving each one with fearless shot-making and breaking back to level at 5–5.
The tension escalated.
Rybakina immediately broke again to lead 6–5, earning a second chance to serve out the match — and again, Pegula refused to yield. Another break followed, and suddenly the set was heading to a tiebreak, with Rybakina having failed twice to close the door.
The tiebreak became a battle of nerve.
Rybakina surged ahead to 4–2 in the tiebreak, then let three points slip in succession, allowing Pegula back into the contest. Despite two unforced errors from the American, Pegula wrestled the upper hand and earned two set points, threatening to force a decider.
Rybakina, however, steadied herself, erased both chances with bold first strikes, and leaned on her serve when it mattered most at the business end of the breaker. On her fourth match point, she finally delivered, closing the breaker 9–7 to complete a 6–3, 7–6(7) victory.
Relief washed over her. So did belief.
Pegula vs Rybakina – Set Stats
| Statistic | Pegula | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 0.96 | 1.05 |
| Winners | 10 | 23 |
| Unforced Errors | 10 | 22 |
| Serve Rating | 208 | 211 |
| Aces | 1 | 6 |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 |
| 1st Serve % | 62% (31/50) | 59% (27/46) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 65% (20/31) | 70% (19/27) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 30% (6/20) | 26% (5/19) |
| Break Points Saved | 57% (4/7) | 25% (1/4) |
| Service Games Won | 50% (3/6) | 50% (3/6) |
| Ace % | 2% | 13% |
| Double Fault % | 0% | 0% |
| Return Rating | 229 | 198 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 30% (8/27) | 35% (11/31) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 74% (14/19) | 70% (14/20) |
| Break Points Won | 75% (3/4) | 43% (3/7) |
| Return Games Won | 50% (3/6) | 50% (3/6) |
| Pressure Points Won | 64% (7/11) | 36% (4/11) |
| Service Points Won | 50% (25/50) | 52% (24/46) |
| Return Points Won | 48% (22/46) | 50% (25/50) |
| Net Points Won | 83% (5/6) | 71% (5/7) |
| Total Points Won | 49% (47/96) | 51% (49/96) |
| Match Points Saved | 3 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 5 | 5 |
| Service Games | 50% (3/6) | 50% (3/6) |
| Return Games | 50% (3/6) | 50% (3/6) |
| Total Games | 50% (6/12) | 50% (6/12) |
| Max Games In A Row | 2 | 2 |
| Set Duration | 1h09m | |
A Final Reborn: Sabalenka vs Rybakina, One More Time
With the win, Rybakina books her place in the Australian Open final for the second time, setting up a rematch of the 2023 championship match against Aryna Sabalenka on Saturday, 31 January.
Pegula exits having pushed one of the tour’s most imposing players to the edge, while Rybakina advances having shown she can win not only with power and precision — but under pressure, when control briefly slips.
In Melbourne, the rivalry resumes.
Belarus’ greatest sporting icon, forged in Minsk, against the girl once dismissed in Moscow as too clumsy to play tennis.
Time has answered every doubt. The rest, as ever, is history.
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