Elena Rybakina didn’t just beat Iga Swiatek in the Australian Open quarterfinals — she took the match away from her. One late opening in the first set was all the Kazakh needed. From there, the momentum swung hard, the points stacked quickly, and Swiatek never recovered as Rybakina closed out a commanding 7–5, 6–1 win to reach the Melbourne semifinals.
It sends the 2023 finalist within one win of another Australian Open final, where she will face either Jessica Pegula or Amanda Anisimova. More broadly, it underlined a trend that is becoming uncomfortable for the rest of the field: Rybakina is not blinking against elite opposition.
A Tight First Set Turns on One Moment
The match opened unevenly for Rybakina. She dropped her opening service game, landing just one of her first five first serves, and Swiatek took the early break after a forehand miss. It looked, briefly, like a familiar Swiatek script.
But the response was immediate. Rybakina broke straight back, steadied her delivery, and from there both players settled into a tense, high-quality exchange of holds. Swiatek worked hard in longer rallies but struggled whenever Rybakina flattened out her backhand down the line, repeatedly exposing a forehand that lacked its usual penetration.
Naturally, the Pole summoned moments of brilliance, but they flickered and faded. Rybakina felt omnipresent — towering on serve, sharp on return, and relentlessly pressing in the rallies, her aggression flowing without pause, without mercy.
At 6–5, with a tiebreak looming, Swiatek finally blinked. A cluster of break chances appeared, and Rybakina pounced, sealing the set when Swiatek pushed a backhand cross-court in the net. It was the turning point.
Rybakina vs Swiatek – Set One Stats
| Statistic | Rybakina | Swiatek |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.36 | 0.74 |
| Winners | 12 | 7 |
| Unforced Errors | 14 | 16 |
| Serve Rating | 269 | 233 |
| Aces | 4 | 1 |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 |
| 1st Serve % | 41% (14/34) | 54% (22/41) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 93% (13/14) | 64% (14/22) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 50% (10/20) | 47% (9/19) |
| Break Points Saved | 75% (3/4) | 60% (3/5) |
| Service Games Won | 83% (5/6) | 67% (4/6) |
| Ace % | 11.8% | 2.4% |
| Double Fault % | 5.9% | 0% |
| Return Rating | 162 | 99 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 36% (8/22) | 7% (1/14) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 53% (10/19) | 50% (10/20) |
| Break Points Won | 40% (2/5) | 25% (1/4) |
| Return Games Won | 33% (2/6) | 17% (1/6) |
| Pressure Points Won | 56% (5/9) | 44% (4/9) |
| Service Points Won | 68% (23/34) | 56% (23/41) |
| Return Points Won | 44% (18/41) | 32% (11/34) |
| Net Points Won | 100% (5/5) | 100% (5/5) |
| Total Points Won | 55% (41/75) | 45% (34/75) |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 4 | 5 |
| Service Games | 83% (5/6) | 67% (4/6) |
| Return Games | 33% (2/6) | 17% (1/6) |
| Total Games | 58% (7/12) | 42% (5/12) |
| Max Games In A Row | 2 | 1 |
| Set Duration | 1h00m | |
Once Ahead, Rybakina Never Looked Back
The second set was a different contest entirely. Rybakina had the match in her hands and played like it. She broke to love after a loose Swiatek service game and immediately applied separation.
Swiatek’s numbers collapsed under pressure. She won just 50% of first-serve points and an alarming 17% behind the second serve, managing only three winners against nine unforced errors. Rybakina, by contrast, dictated with clarity and force, striking 13 winners and conceding just five unforced errors in the set.
Swiatek held serve only once. Rybakina surged to a double break at 5–1 and finished the job with an ace, closing the match in 1 hour and 35 minutes.
Rybakina vs Swiatek – Set Two Stats
| Statistic | Rybakina | Swiatek |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 2.01 | 0.50 |
| Winners | 13 | 3 |
| Unforced Errors | 5 | 9 |
| Serve Rating | 303 | 158 |
| Aces | 7 | 2 |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 |
| 1st Serve % | 60% (15/25) | 57% (8/14) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 67% (10/15) | 50% (4/8) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 70% (7/10) | 17% (1/6) |
| Break Points Saved | – (0/0) | 0% (0/2) |
| Service Games Won | 100% (4/4) | 33% (1/3) |
| Ace % | 28% | 14.3% |
| Double Fault % | 4% | 7.1% |
| Return Rating | 300 | 63 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 50% (4/8) | 33% (5/15) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 83% (5/6) | 30% (3/10) |
| Break Points Won | 100% (2/2) | – (0/0) |
| Return Games Won | 67% (2/3) | 0% (0/4) |
| Pressure Points Won | 100% (2/2) | 0% (0/2) |
| Service Points Won | 68% (17/25) | 36% (5/14) |
| Return Points Won | 64% (9/14) | 32% (8/25) |
| Net Points Won | 50% (1/2) | 100% (1/1) |
| Total Points Won | 67% (26/39) | 33% (13/39) |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 5 | 4 |
| Service Games | 100% (4/4) | 33% (1/3) |
| Return Games | 67% (2/3) | 0% (0/4) |
| Total Games | 86% (6/7) | 14% (1/7) |
| Max Games In A Row | 3 | 1 |
| Set Duration | 0h35m | |
What It Means
Rybakina’s form is now impossible to ignore. She has won 18 of her last 19 matches, claimed nine straight victories over Top 10 opponents, and looks increasingly comfortable asserting herself on the biggest stages. Melbourne, once a frustrating stop, is becoming fertile ground again.
For Swiatek, the wait for the missing major that would complete a career Grand Slam goes on. This was a reminder that when her serve falters and she loses early control of rallies, the margins at this level disappear quickly.
Rybakina now waits for the winner of the all-American quarterfinal between Pegula and Anisimova — the last U.S. players standing after the exits of Coco Gauff and Iva Jovic. On this evidence, whoever emerges will face a semifinal opponent already playing with authority, conviction, and momentum.
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