Elena Rybakina slipped through the first round of the Australian Open with minimal fuss and maximum efficiency, brushing aside Slovenia’s Kaja Juvan 6–4, 6–3 in a performance that felt both controlled and ominous. No theatrics, no turbulence — just a former finalist moving smoothly back into her preferred territory.
Seeded fifth and fresh off a commanding close to the 2025 season, Rybakina continues to look like the most dangerous player no one is shouting about.
Numbers That Tell the Story
Statistically, the match leaned heavily in Rybakina’s favor. She struck five aces, won 83 percent of points behind her first serve and 62 percent on her second, and did not commit a single double fault. Her 22 winners were balanced by 24 unforced errors — a trade-off she can afford when service games remain virtually untouchable.
Most tellingly, she converted both break chances she earned. Juvan, by contrast, had just one look at a break point — on the final game — and could not take it.
Rybakina vs Juvan – Full Match Stats
| Statistic | Rybakina | Juvan |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.49 | 0.67 |
| Winners | 22 | 15 |
| Unforced Errors | 24 | 20 |
| Serve Rating | 311 | 253 |
| Aces | 5 | 2 |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 |
| 1st Serve % | 61% (35/57) | 63% (35/56) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 83% (29/35) | 74% (26/35) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 62% (13/21) | 38% (8/21) |
| Break Points Saved | 100% (1/1) | 0% (0/2) |
| Ace % | 8.8% | 3.6% |
| Double Fault % | 0% | 3.6% |
| Return Rating | 210 | 55 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 26% (9/35) | 17% (6/35) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 62% (13/21) | 38% (8/21) |
| Break Points Won | 100% (2/2) | 0% (0/1) |
| Return Games | 22% (2/9) | 0% (0/10) |
| Pressure Points | 100% (3/3) | 0% (0/3) |
| Service Points | 74% (42/57) | 61% (34/56) |
| Return Points | 39% (22/56) | 26% (15/57) |
| Net Points | 62% (8/13) | 67% (2/3) |
| Total Points | 57% (64/113) | 43% (49/113) |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 9 | 3 |
| Max Games In A Row | 3 | 1 |
| Match Duration | 1h13m | |
Patience in the First, Authority in the Second
The opening set unfolded on serve until Rybakina applied pressure precisely when it mattered. With the score locked at 4–4, she forced Juvan into errors and broke late, closing out the set 6–4 without having faced a single break point herself.
Her return game sharpened slightly in the second. An early break put her in front, and although the serve wobbled briefly when closing, she ended matters with a clean ace down the line — a neat summary of the afternoon.
“It was not an easy match,” Rybakina said on court. “In the first set I struggled a lot on the return. But I’m happy with the serve — it really worked today.”
Under the Radar, by Design
Rybakina’s opening statement came on a day when Amanda Anisimova, Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka all advanced with varying degrees of authority. Yet her performance may have been the cleanest of the lot.
She closed 2025 by lifting the WTA Finals trophy and, on paper, arrives in Melbourne as perhaps the form player just outside the inner circle of favorites. If that status shifts quietly over the next few rounds, it is unlikely to bother her.
“I try to focus on my game,” she said. “When the serve is there, it’s easier to adjust. The return wasn’t great today, but I was close in every game. It’s the first match. Hopefully I play better and better.”
A Manageable Path, With Traps Ahead
Next up is Varvara Gracheva, a matchup Rybakina will expect to control if her serve holds its level. Further ahead, the draw has already thinned on her section. Linda Fruhvirtova and teenager Tereza Valentova both advanced and could emerge as potential fourth-round opponents, ruling out names like Lulu Sun or Maya Joint from that equation.
None of it seems to register heavily with Rybakina, whose relationship with Melbourne continues to deepen.
“I feel like the tournament gets better every year,” she said. “We are treated very well here. I really enjoy Australia — it’s a beautiful city, great breakfast places, and I have some friends here. But I’m trying to focus more on the tournament and recovery.”
If this opening round is any indication, that focus is already paying dividends. The serve is sharp, the body looks fresh, and the mood is unmistakably businesslike. Elena Rybakina may still be flying under the radar — but in Melbourne, that is often when she is most dangerous.