Emma Raducanu’s Australian Open came to an abrupt and uncomfortable halt under the roof at the ANZ Arena, where Anastasia Potapova dismantled her 7–6(3), 6–2 with a mix of nerve, timing, and growing authority. What began as a scrappy arm-wrestle turned into a one-sided lesson in momentum — and composure.
Seeded 29 and favored on paper, Raducanu never quite looked settled, and once the match tilted, she could not pull it back.
A First Set Full of Noise, Then a Sudden Shift
The opening set was chaotic from the first ball. Five consecutive breaks set the tone, neither player able to impose control as the wind swirled and timing deserted both rackets. Raducanu finally steadied herself at 3–2 with her first hold, then broke again to lead 5–3, seemingly edging toward daylight.
Instead, it was the turning point.
Errors crept into Raducanu’s game, her forehand leaking as Potapova sensed hesitation. The Russian-born Austrian broke back, forced a tiebreak, and then owned it completely. She won 57 percent of points behind a modest 51 percent first-serve rate, while Raducanu’s headline 77 percent first serve translated into just 47 percent of points won — a hollow statistic that explained everything.
Potapova took the breaker 7–3, calmer, clearer, and already leaning forward.
Potapova vs Raducanu – Set 1 Stats
| Statistic | Potapova | Raducanu |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.05 | 0.95 |
| Winners | 13 | 8 |
| Unforced Errors | 22 | 20 |
| Serve Rating | 202 | 231 |
| Aces | 1 | 1 |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 |
| 1st Serve % | 51% (23/45) | 77% (30/39) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 57% (13/23) | 47% (14/30) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 45% (10/22) | 56% (5/9) |
| Break Points Saved | 25% (1/4) | 40% (2/5) |
| Ace % | 2.2% | 2.6% |
| Double Fault % | 4.4% | 0% |
| Return Rating | 207 | 223 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 53% (16/30) | 43% (10/23) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 44% (4/9) | 55% (12/22) |
| Break Points Won | 60% (3/5) | 75% (3/4) |
| Return Games | 50% (3/6) | 50% (3/6) |
| Pressure Points | 44% (4/9) | 56% (5/9) |
| Service Points | 51% (23/45) | 49% (19/39) |
| Return Points | 51% (20/39) | 49% (22/45) |
| Net Points | 83% (5/6) | 50% (2/4) |
| Total Points | 51% (43/84) | 49% (41/84) |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 5 | 7 |
| Max Games In A Row | 3 | 2 |
| Set 1 Duration | 0h59m | |
Second Set belongs Entirely to Potapova
What tension remained evaporated quickly. Potapova broke immediately, broke again moments later, and surged to a 3–0 lead with Raducanu struggling to absorb the pace. The numbers were brutal.
In the second set, Potapova posted a dominance ratio of 1.58 to Raducanu’s 0.63. She struck 12 winners to just two unforced errors. Raducanu, by contrast, made nine errors and won only 30 percent of her second-serve points.
Potapova’s return game was ruthless. She won 55 percent of first-serve return points and a staggering 70 percent on Raducanu’s second serve, converting all three break points she earned. Raducanu saved none.
There was a flicker — a brief break back aided by a double fault and a loose forehand — but Potapova reclaimed control immediately, breaking again and never loosening her grip. She closed the match 6–2 on her second match point, holding serve with assurance Raducanu never found.
Potapova vs Raducanu – Set 2 Stats
| Statistic | Potapova | Raducanu |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.58 | 0.63 |
| Winners | 12 | 9 |
| Unforced Errors | 2 | 8 |
| Serve Rating | 250 | 150 |
| Aces | 2 | 0 |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 |
| 1st Serve % | 57% (13/23) | 52% (11/21) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 77% (10/13) | 45% (5/11) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 40% (4/10) | 30% (3/10) |
| Break Points Saved | 50% (1/2) | 0% (0/3) |
| Ace % | 8.7% | 0% |
| Double Fault % | 4.3% | 9.5% |
| Return Rating | 300 | 158 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 55% (6/11) | 23% (3/13) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 70% (7/10) | 60% (6/10) |
| Break Points Won | 100% (3/3) | 50% (1/2) |
| Return Games | 75% (3/4) | 25% (1/4) |
| Pressure Points | 80% (4/5) | 20% (1/5) |
| Service Points | 61% (14/23) | 38% (8/21) |
| Return Points | 62% (13/21) | 39% (9/23) |
| Net Points | 100% (2/2) | 0% (0/2) |
| Total Points | 61% (27/44) | 39% (17/44) |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 1 |
| Max Points In A Row | 5 | 3 |
| Max Games In A Row | 3 | 1 |
| Set 2 Duration | 0h34m | |
Calm Versus Uncertainty
The contrast was stark. Potapova finished with a perfect break-point record in the second set, a serve rating of 250, and total command of the big points. Raducanu saved one match points and won just 39 percent of return points overall in the set.
This was only Potapova’s second trip to the Australian Open third round — the first in five years — but it did not feel like an outsider’s moment. She looked prepared, decisive, and fully aware of the opportunity in front of her.
For Raducanu, the questions linger. The energy dipped, the confidence wavered, and once the first set slipped away, the match followed quickly after it.
Potapova now moves on to face world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka in the round of 32, a steep step up — but on this evidence, she will not arrive overawed. Raducanu, meanwhile, leaves Melbourne searching for rhythm, answers, and a reset she again could not find on this night.