Jessica Pegula has a knack for turning familiar matchups into unfinished business settled. On Sunday in Melbourne, the world No.6 dismantled defending champion Madison Keys’ Australian Open title defense with a controlled 6–3, 6–4 win, leaning on discipline, patience, and a ruthless reading of Keys’ errors to reach the quarterfinals.
It was Pegula’s fourth quarterfinal appearance at the Australian Open and a measured piece of revenge for last year’s Brisbane final, won by Keys en route to her breakthrough 2025 Melbourne title. This time, the roles were reversed. Pegula absorbed the pace, waited for the cracks, and watched them widen.
Pegula Sets the Tone Early
The opening set unfolded exactly as Pegula would have drawn it up. She broke early, raced to a 3–0 lead after winning 12 of the first 15 points, and immediately placed Keys under scoreboard pressure.
Keys briefly found a foothold, raising her first-serve percentage and eventually converting her third break chance to claw back to 3–4. But the reprieve was short-lived. Pegula pounced again, broke immediately, and served out the set 6–3. The contrast was stark: Keys leaked 12 unforced errors in the opener, Pegula just four.
Pegula vs Keys – Set One Stats
| Statistic | Pegula | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.45 | 0.69 |
| Winners | 5 | 11 |
| Unforced Errors | 4 | 12 |
| Serve Rating | 273 | 206 |
| Aces | 1 | 0 |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 |
| 1st Serve % | 69% (22/32) | 68% (15/22) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 64% (14/22) | 47% (7/15) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 60% (6/10) | 43% (3/7) |
| Break Points Saved | 67% (2/3) | 0% (0/2) |
| Service Games Won | 80% (4/5) | 50% (2/4) |
| Ace % | 3.1% | 0% |
| Double Fault % | 3.1% | 9.1% |
| Return Rating | 260 | 129 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 53% (8/15) | 36% (8/22) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 57% (4/7) | 40% (4/10) |
| Break Points Won | 100% (2/2) | 33% (1/3) |
| Return Games Won | 50% (2/4) | 20% (1/5) |
| Pressure Points Won | 80% (4/5) | 20% (1/5) |
| Service Points Won | 63% (20/32) | 45% (10/22) |
| Return Points Won | 55% (12/22) | 38% (12/32) |
| Net Points Won | 80% (4/5) | 50% (3/6) |
| Total Points Won | 59% (32/54) | 41% (22/54) |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 5 | 5 |
| Service Games | 80% (4/5) | 50% (2/4) |
| Return Games | 50% (2/4) | 20% (1/5) |
| Total Games | 67% (6/9) | 33% (3/9) |
| Max Games In A Row | 3 | 2 |
| Set 1 Duration | 0h32m | |
Control Without Noise
The second set was less fluent from Pegula on serve, her first-serve percentage dipping and denying her the cheap points she enjoyed early. It didn’t matter. Keys continued to struggle off the second serve, winning just 32 percent of those points across the match, and Pegula broke again to lead 2–0.
A second break for 4–1 appeared to settle the contest. Keys, swinging freely with little to lose, did manage to retrieve one break and inject brief tension, but Pegula never lost her composure. She closed out the match in 1 hour and 19 minutes, serving calmly under pressure and refusing to give Keys a final opening.
Pegula vs Keys – Set Two Stats
| Statistic | Pegula | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.12 | 0.90 |
| Winners | 9 | 15 |
| Unforced Errors | 9 | 16 |
| Serve Rating | 248 | 219 |
| Aces | 1 | 4 |
| Double Faults | 0 | 4 |
| 1st Serve % | 50% (17/34) | 59% (22/37) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 76% (13/17) | 73% (16/22) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 41% (7/17) | 27% (4/15) |
| Break Points Saved | 67% (2/3) | 33% (1/3) |
| Service Games Won | 80% (4/5) | 60% (3/5) |
| Ace % | 2.9% | 10.8% |
| Double Fault % | 0% | 10.8% |
| Return Rating | 207 | 136 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 27% (6/22) | 24% (4/17) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 73% (11/15) | 59% (10/17) |
| Break Points Won | 67% (2/3) | 33% (1/3) |
| Return Games Won | 40% (2/5) | 20% (1/5) |
| Pressure Points Won | 67% (4/6) | 33% (2/6) |
| Service Points Won | 59% (20/34) | 54% (20/37) |
| Return Points Won | 46% (17/37) | 41% (14/34) |
| Net Points Won | 75% (6/8) | 86% (6/7) |
| Total Points Won | 52% (37/71) | 48% (34/71) |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 5 | 6 |
| Service Games | 80% (4/5) | 60% (3/5) |
| Return Games | 40% (2/5) | 20% (1/5) |
| Total Games | 60% (6/10) | 40% (4/10) |
| Max Games In A Row | 2 | 2 |
| Set 2 Duration | 0h47m | |
Why Pegula Won
The numbers underline the story. Pegula posted a dominance ratio of 1.25, won 55 percent of total points, and was vastly superior in the moments that decide matches. She converted four of five break points and claimed 73 percent of pressure points. Keys, by contrast, won just three of 11.
While Keys struck more winners (26 to 14), she also committed more than double the unforced errors (28 to 13) and six double faults. Pegula’s return game was decisive, winning 44 percent of return games and 68 percent of points against Keys’ second serve — a gap that Keys never bridged.
Madison Keys Will Cheer On Pegula
Keys was asked whether she had any message for her rival at the net after finishing the match. “The last time we told Jess she was going to do well, she didn’t do well. She told us that we’re all banned from saying anything,” Keys explained in her press conference.
“Obviously not the way that I wanted things to end here, but I’m still really proud of myself,” commented Keys. “I think coming back as the defending champion, dealing with all of the extra pressure and nerves, I’m really proud of how I handled it. It was just one of those days where I feel like Jess beat me, and I can kind of walk away with my head held high.”
What It Means Next
This is Pegula’s ninth Grand Slam quarterfinal and her fourth in Melbourne, though she has yet to move beyond this stage at the Australian Open. Her next opponent will be decided by the meeting between fourth seed Amanda Anisimova and China’s Xinyu Wang, with Pegula still searching for the Melbourne breakthrough that has eluded her so far.
For Keys, the loss brings a rankings drop to around world No.15 after defending a heavy early-season points load. It is not a collapse, merely the arithmetic of a title defense. She now heads to the Middle East swing in Doha and Dubai with no points to defend and a chance to reset quickly.
Melbourne moves on without its defending champion. Pegula does too — quietly, efficiently, and exactly on her own terms. The Tour’s steadiest machine is rolling again in 2026.
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