The women’s singles draw at the Australian Open reaches its sharpest point on Thursday, January 29, with two semi-finals that pit dominance against resilience and momentum against consistency. Aryna Sabalenka faces Elina Svitolina in a rivalry shaped by tension and control, while Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula meet in a clash that has remained perfectly balanced over time.
All four players arrive in the semi-finals without dropping a set, a rarity that underlines the level of separation created over the first eleven days in Melbourne.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina
Control, History and a One-Sided Trend
Sabalenka enters the semi-final as the tournament’s immovable object. She has now won 25 of her last 26 matches at the Australian Open, reached three consecutive finals, and has made the semi-finals in 12 of her last 13 Grand Slam appearances.
Against Svitolina, the numbers are unambiguous.
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 5–1, has won the last four meetings, and has outperformed the Ukrainian across virtually every key metric: dominance ratio, break-point efficiency, and total points won.
Svitolina’s lone victory came in Strasbourg in 2020. Since then, she has pushed Sabalenka physically — most notably in Rome 2024 — but has consistently fallen short in decisive moments.
Head-to-Head Breakdown
| Category | Sabalenka | Svitolina |
|---|---|---|
| Head-to-Head | 5–1 | 1–5 |
| Hard Court H2H | 3–0 | 0–3 |
| Avg Dominance Ratio | 1.21 | 0.92 |
| Avg Total Points Won | 53.3% | 47.7% |
| Break Points Converted | 25/41 | |
| Break Points Saved | 33/51 | |
| Last 4 Meetings | 4 wins | 0 wins |
Sabalenka has consistently dictated terms with first-serve efficiency (often above 74% points won) and aggressive return positioning, while Svitolina has struggled to convert pressure into sustained scoreboard control.
For Svitolina to reverse the trend, she must serve at a high level. The one time she defeated Sabalenka, she did exactly that. Limiting Sabalenka’s effectiveness behind the first serve would be a major bonus. It is a narrow path, but not an impossible one—as she showed against Coco Gauff.
Complete Match History
| Match # | Month / Year | Event | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jan 2026 | Australian Open (SF) | Sabalenka vs Svitolina | To be played |
| 6 | Apr 2025 | Madrid (SF) | Sabalenka vs Svitolina | 6–3, 7–5 |
| 5 | Aug 2024 | Cincinnati (R16) | Sabalenka vs Svitolina | 7–5, 6–2 |
| 4 | May 2024 | Rome (R16) | Sabalenka vs Svitolina | 4–6, 6–1, 7–6(7) |
| 3 | May 2023 | Roland Garros (QF) | Sabalenka vs Svitolina | 6–4, 6–4 |
| 2 | Sep 2020 | Strasbourg (SF) | Svitolina vs Sabalenka | 6–2, 4–6, 6–4 |
| 1 | Sep 2018 | Wuhan (R32) | Sabalenka vs Svitolina | 6–4, 2–6, 6–1 |
Head-to-Head: Sabalenka leads 5–1
Trend: Sabalenka has won 4 straight since 2023
Last Meeting Snapshot
Madrid SF, 2025
(Serve & return balance from their most recent head-to-head encounter)
| Metric | Aryna Sabalenka | Elina Svitolina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces (%) | 5.7% | 6.2% |
| Double Faults (%) | 5.7% | 6.2% |
| 1st Serve In | 57.1% | 55.4% |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 75.0% | 63.9% |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 46.7% | 41.4% |
| Return Points Won vs 1st Serve | 36.1% | 25% |
| Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve | 58.6% | 53.3% |
Reading the numbers:
Sabalenka’s edge comes from first-serve damage and scoreboard control, while Svitolina’s best resistance appears on second-serve exchanges.
Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula
Momentum Meets Precision in a Perfectly Balanced Rivalry
If the first semi-final leans heavily on history, the second is defined by symmetry.
Rybakina and Pegula are tied 3–3 in their head-to-head, with wins split across surfaces and formats. Yet recent momentum slightly favors the Kazakh, who has won three of the last four meetings, including a comeback victory at the 2025 WTA Finals.
Rybakina arrives in Melbourne riding elite form: 18 wins in her last 19 matches and nine straight victories over Top-10 opponents.
Pegula, meanwhile, has quietly produced one of the most efficient runs of the tournament, dispatching Madison Keys and Amanda Anisimova in straight sets with trademark composure.
Head-to-Head Breakdown
| Category | Rybakina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Head-to-Head | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Hard Court H2H | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Avg Dominance Ratio | 0.98 | 1.06 |
| Avg Total Points Won | 49.02% | 50.98% |
| Break Points Converted | 18/45 | 20/39 |
| Break Points Saved | 19/39 | 27/45 |
| Last 4 Meetings | 3 wins | 1 win |
Note: BJK Cup match not included in averages
Rybakina’s edge has come when she controls the first strike — particularly on serve, where ace rates have reached as high as 16.9% in recent wins. Pegula’s victories, by contrast, have relied on higher efficiency on converting break points, saving more break points, and forcing Rybakina into lower first-serve percentages.
Complete Match History
| Match # | Date | Event | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jan 2026 | Australian Open (SF) | Rybakina vs Pegula | To be played |
| 6 | Nov 2025 | WTA Finals Riyadh (SF) | Rybakina vs Pegula | 4–6, 6–4, 6–3 |
| 5 | Sep 2025 | BJK Cup Finals (RR) | Rybakina vs Pegula | 6–4, 6–1 |
| 4 | Oct 2023 | WTA Finals Cancun (RR) | Pegula vs Rybakina | 7–5, 6–2 |
| 3 | Mar 2023 | Miami (SF) | Rybakina vs Pegula | 7–6(3), 6–4 |
| 2 | Oct 2022 | Guadalajara (R32) | Pegula vs Rybakina | 2–6, 6–3, 7–6(8) |
| 1 | Mar 2022 | Miami (R32) | Pegula vs Rybakina | 6–3, 6–4 |
Head-to-Head: Tied 3–3
Recent Edge: Rybakina has won 3 of the last 4
Last Meeting Snapshot
WTA Finals SF, Riyadh 2025
(Serve & return balance from their most recent head-to-head encounter)
| Metric | Elena Rybakina | Jessica Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Aces (%) | 16.9% | 1.0% |
| Double Faults (%) | 5.6% | 1.0% |
| 1st Serve In | 62.9% | 68.3% |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 73.2% | 59.4% |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 42.4% | 46.9% |
| Return Points Won vs 1st Serve | 40.6% | 26.8% |
| Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve | 53.1% | 57.6% |
This semi-final will likely hinge on Pegula’s return depth and Rybakina’s second-serve resilience — small margins that historically decide their encounters.
The Stakes
Sabalenka is chasing dominance and legacy.
Svitolina is chasing a first Grand Slam final.
Rybakina is knocking on the door of world No.3.
Pegula is seeking the breakthrough moment her consistency has long promised.
Two matches, four elite players, and a final that will be shaped as much by form of the day as by nerve.
Our AO26 Final prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
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